The Continuing Search for Evidence of Tidal Orbital Decay of Hot Jupiters
April 2020 • 2020AJ....159..150P
Abstract • Many of the known hot Jupiters are formally unstable to tidal orbital decay. The only hot Jupiter for which orbital decay has been directly detected is WASP-12, for which transit-timing measurements spanning more than a decade have revealed that the orbital period is decreasing at a rate of ${dP}/{dt}\approx {10}^{-9}, corresponding to a reduced tidal quality factor of about 2 × 105. Here, we present a compilation of transit-timing data for WASP-12 and 11 other systems that are especially favorable for detecting orbital decay: KELT-16; WASP-18, 19, 43, 72, 103, 114, and 122; HAT-P-23; HATS-18; and OGLE-TR-56. For most of these systems we present new data that extend the time baseline over which observations have been performed. None of the systems besides WASP-12 display convincing evidence for period changes, with typical upper limits on dP/dt on the order of 10-9 or 10-10, and lower limits on the reduced tidal quality factor on the order of 105. One possible exception is WASP-19, which shows a statistically significant trend, although it may be a spurious effect of starspot activity. Further observations are encouraged.
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